Saturday, November 22, 2008
Bringing The Global Web To India
What can we do in the meantime? Well, Google has an interesting approach to this issue - automatic translation. If you do a search in Hindi and scroll down to the last search result on the first page, you'll see a link to a result that's been translated from English. For example, try querying for सरकारी नौकरी and scroll down to the bottom of the results page. You'll see a link to a translated query result. Clicking on the link takes you to a translated query results page. Here's how this works:
1) We will take your Hindi query - "सरकारी नौकरी" - and translate it into English - "government job".
2) We'll then run the English query and get back English results.
3) We'll translate those results back into Hindi for you.
All these translations are done automatically, using a machine translation engine developed at Google. This technology allows you to translate any text or web page instantly. Here's the Times of India homepage automatically translated into Hindi. Of course, because these are machine-generated translations they will never be as good as human translations (and they can even be quite funny) but the quality should be good enough for you to understand the sense of what you're looking for.
A neat and unique way of using technology to help bring information to users, even when it doesn't exist in their language.
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Better Search in Hindi
For our purposes, the operative words are world and universal. So how do we fulfill this core mission in India, for those who would prefer to interact in their local language rather than in English? Of course our core search technology works across languages and has been adapted to the specific needs of each language. Apart from this there are some specific features we launched on Google Hindi Search. I'd like to showcase one of them here. We launched this in response to the difficulty our users faced in entering Hindi text.
Problem: Hard to enter Hindi text on a regular english keyboard.
Solution: Easy Hindi search in 3 steps - Pictures say it louder than words.
Step 1: Start typing in English and you'll see Hindi suggestions
Step 2: Select your query from the drop-down list
Step 3: View the results of your search in Hindi
We have this feature available in seven other Indian languages:
Happy searching!
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Chicken or Egg?
What struck me as I spoke to the developers at the conference is a sense of uncertainty about the market opportunity for Indic language products and services, so I thought I'd set down some thoughts on how I look at this market.
The opportunity.
- In an earlier post, I outlined some of the demographic and socioeconomic statistics that set the context for this opportunity. Bottom-line: India is getting richer and more literate at a much faster pace than its learning English.
- In every country around the world, as the internet provided compelling content and applications in local languages, people found value in them. This is true across Europe, Asia and the Americas. There is no reason to think India is different.
The ecosystem
- The bottleneck is this: people won't go online until hey find value, and the value creators (content producers, application developers) won't make the investment until they find people online. How to break this logjam?
- If we look at how the internet developed in the US, it may provide a useful analogy. For the purposes of our discussion, we can break down this evolution into three phases.
- First came content. This was mostly produced by communities people who had a passion for putting up content they cared about. Traffic and monetization was mot the motivation.
- Second came growing readership as people started discovering this content. This set off a virtuous cycle in which content eventually because a viable, monetizatable business.
- Third (and final) were the application developers who could now focus on moving the online experience beyond passive consumption of information to interactivity, community building, service delivery and a host of other innovations.
Are you ready?
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Improving Lives Through Search
I beg to differ.
One of the most powerful features of the web is the democratization of access to information. With the web, consumers can be free of value-extracting middlemen and brokers of information. With the web, consumers can reduce information asymmetry. That isn't a luxury - it's a powerful tool to improve lives.
Imagine a sick child, and parents who have no easy access to medical care. The web can yield information to understand symptoms and help parents provide basic treatment. Imagine a bright school student who attends a poorly-run and managed school that will ill-prepare her for college and the job market. If this student could access educational content online, it could transform her life prospects.
Search can improve lives. And it helps those people most who have the least access to alternative sources of information - typically those lower down in the socio-economic ladder.
One of the things I like to do is to read Google's customer testimonials from time to time. I've reproduced a few below. This isn't a pitch for Google - you can replace "Google" with the more generic "search" and the message is equally powerful.
Message from: Abigail
"Google helped me discover that my daughter's strange medical problems are part of a rare genetic syndrome that most of her doctors had never heard of. Her doctors diagnosed her after I brought them the information, and my discovery helped her cardiologist diagnose another patient with the same syndrome. Because of my daughter's new diagnosis, we have uncovered other dangerous but treatable problems that we wouldn't have known about until they caused her serious damage. So, I'm very grateful to the people at Google who made all of this possible. Thank you."
Message from: Ann
"I just wanted to let you know that Google may well have saved my life. My sons and I were walking home from having eaten out. A half block from my house, I felt this pressure building in my chest. Immediately, I thought, 'heart attack' and ran through how I'd been feeling that the day (I had been nauseated). My first thought was, 'confirm suspicions,' and immediately, upon arriving home, I went to Google and typed in 'heart attack.' I kept thinking, 'you only have minutes...' I found a site that listed symptoms. Indeed, I was having a heart attack. I was at the Albany fire station within minutes. Five baby aspirin later, and a few squirts of nitro and I was in the ambulance on my way to the hospital. The good news is, I have no residual damage. My heart is back to normal. Thank you for providing the Google search engine. I'm sure my recovery was complete because of the speed within which I was able to get help."
Message from: Laura
"Last year my daughter, who was a senior in high school, was afraid of failing her math final. I did a search on Google and came up with more than one method of explaining the formulas...She passed the final and ended up with a B in the class instead of a C. "
Friday, September 12, 2008
Onashamsakal
Thursday, September 11, 2008
India by the Numbers
- Total population: 1.2 billion
- Total literate population: 650 million
- Total middle class population: 350 million
- Total newspaper readership: 200 million
- Total vernacular newspaper readership: 180 million (90% of total)
- Total English-speaking population: 80 million (self-identified as speaking as first- or second-language in the 2001 census)
- Total online population: 40 - 50 million
We need to build the Indian language web. Who's in?
* (Sources: 2001 Indian Census and 2006 National Readership Survey)
Monday, September 8, 2008
Hello? Testing.. 1... 2... 3
My last blog post (before this one) was exactly sixteen months ago! It's amazing how time flies. I blogged back in April of 2007 about our imminent move from the Bay Area to Bangalore. Well, the move happened, and my wife and I have been in Bangalore since May last year. What with getting used to a new city, a new job (Product Manager at Google), a new social life (or lack thereof), blogging took a back seat.
What's pretty neat is that in the time that I've been away, I've actually been working on many of the themes that I've blogged about: product innovation in developing countries. My focus during the last sixteen months has been on Google's Indic language strategy and figuring out how best to bridge the language barriers that make the internet so daunting for the vast majority of India's population.
I hope to pick up where I left off in May last year. Is it possible to resuscitate a blog after a year? I hope so. I'd like to revive this blog, share my thoughts and ideas, and get your feedback. In the meantime, take a look at some of the stuff Google is doing in India.
Sunday, May 6, 2007
Survey of India's Consumer Market
- India will be the fifth biggest consumer market. If India continues on its current high-growth path over the next two decades, income levels will triple, and India will climb from its position as the twelfth-largest consumer market today to become the world's fifth-largest consumer market by 2025.
- The middle class will increase tenfold. As Indian incomes rise, the shape of the country's income pyramid will also change dramatically. Over 291 million people will move from desperate poverty to a more sustainable life, and India's middle class will swell by more than ten times from its current size of 50 million to 583 million people.
- Marked shift away from basics towards discretionary spending. Indian spending patterns will evolve, with basic necessities such as food and apparel declining in relative importance and categories such as communications and health care growing rapidly.
The 2007 e-Readiness Rankings
A couple of facts from the rankings:
- Denmark is the highest ranked, while the US and Sweden are tied for second place.
- The highest ranked developing countries are Estonia and Slovenia, at 28 and 29, respectively.
- Among the large developing countries, South Africa is the highest ranked at 35, followed by Turkey at 42 and Brazil at 43.
- Among the BRIC countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, Brazil is the stand-out at 43. India, China and Russia are grouped more or less together at 54, 56 and 57 respectively.
- Consumer and business adoption (25%). Per capita spending on IT, levels of e-commerce activity.
- Connectivity and technological infrastructre (20%). Access, availability and cost of internet access.
- Business Environment (15%). General business climate, including political stability, taxation, labor policies and opennes to investment.
- Social and cultural environment. (15%). Literacy, training, and more generally, the "capacity" to ulitize the technology if it is available.
- Government policy and vision (15%). Government adoption of information technology, online procurement, public services online.
- Legal environment (10%). Ease of new business creation, intellectual property protection.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Living La Vida Local
We can walk to not one, but two, different Indian grocery stores. Steaming hot platefuls of idli and dosa are available in abundance - and cheaply! My wife and I love Keralan food, so we were delighted when we found a great little place with fantastic pepper-fried chicken. Even though we don't have kids, our friends in the neighborhood tell us about the cultural center they take their kids to on the weekends - to learn Indian classical music and dance. For us less cultural pursuits, like watching Guru, suffice. Or, if we feel like staying in, we can go pick up an Indian movie at the local video store.
No, I'm not back in Bangalore - we live in Sunnyvale, CA! Although it wasn't planned this way, it's turned out to be a great transitional place for us when we moved from San Francisco last year, and get ready to move to Bangalore next month. Sunnyvale and Fremont in the East Bay are the two centers of Indian life in the Bay Area. Everyone planning to relocate from here to India, whether Indian or not, should come and spend a couple of months here to make the transition smoother!
Monday, April 9, 2007
Coda
The most apparent changes are the superficial ones: glitzy shopping malls (there were none in 1991) and the profusion of cable TV networks (there was no cable TV in 1991), among others. There are deeper changes too. The one that strikes me more than anything else is the sense of possibility and confidence I see in today's high school and college students. When I was in high school, the limitless possibilities that follow from rapid economic expansion was not something we really conceived of in any meaningful manner.
A nice little illustration of all this can be found in the foreign exchange situation then, and now. In 1991, right was I was getting ready to leave for the US, India's balance of payments weaknesses suddenly caused a crisis. The government was close to defaulting on its debt, and foreign exchange reserves had dropped to about three weeks worth of imports - about $6 billion. As part of a package of reforms, India moved from a fixed to a floating exchange rate, which immediately caused a severe devaluation. I remember my father being quite upset, as my education in the US suddenly became 50% more expensive than it had been a month before!
(If you're interested, you can read more about the 1991 currency crisis in this IMF paper).
Contrast that to today. For those of you who deal in India-US cross border issues, you're probably already aware of the rupee's appreciation against the dollar over the last six months. In fact, the rupee is at an at an 8-year high against the dollar.
Take a look at this exchange rate chart from Oct 06 to today:
The rupee has appreciated from 45.7 per USD in October last year, to 42.6 per USD currently. Foreign exchange reserves have ballooned to almost $200 billion today. It's a world away from 1991.
Saturday, March 31, 2007
Sector Watch: India's Entertainment & Media Industry
The table below summarizes the components of this growth. Some of the numbers are almost certainly understated. For example, the size of the music industry is probably distorted by piracy, while the internet advertising market is distorted because of a lack of reliable reporting services.
Thursday, March 29, 2007
I'm Back (With News)
With that in mind, my wife and I have decided to move to India. We will leave the Bay Area in a couple of months, and move to Bangalore. I will join the Google office in Bangalore (they're hiring!) as a Product Manager. It's an exciting role, in a great company, at a time of enormous opportunity. I can't wait to get started!
I intend to keep blogging, during and after the transition to India. I hope that the changed perspective I can bring from being on the ground in India will be useful.
Thank you all for your patience during the long period of silence. I'm back in the blogosphere and would love to hear from you! Send me your comments and thoughts! In particular, if any of you have moved from the US to India, I would love to get your advice as we plan our move back.
Wednesday, March 7, 2007
This Just In: Indian VC Investment Doubles in 2006
Monday, March 5, 2007
India Poised
- Think big. Think scale.
- Don't ignore social inequality.
- Build an engaged civil society.
This is the second large scale branding/nation-building campaign I've seen out of India in the recent past. The first was meant for an external audience, the India Everywhere campaign at Davos last year, while this is targeted domestically. It's an interesting use of marketing to drive economic growth & empowerment. I wonder if there are analogues in other developing countries, and if so, how effective these campaigns tend to be.
Sunday, March 4, 2007
Cultural Context in a Global Era (Part 1)
...it helps to look at the cultures of India and the United States in broad strokes. India is a deeply traditional group-oriented society; tightly knit extended families place a premium on harmony. Survival depends on interdependency, on keeping each other happy. “Your first goal is to make sure nobody is upset by what you say,” says Storti. “If the group is not strong, if it is upset by confrontation, you are in trouble.”
Compare that with America’s fractured families scattered throughout the country, an ethos of individualism and lore filled with Wild West cowboys and a promise that anything is possible if you work hard enough. The United States is a land of grab-for-it. Subtlety is the exception, in both speech and manner. And when an American talks, it’s usually to get his point across, not to create harmony.
While obviously very broad and sweeping, this strikes me as a pretty accurate representation about how business in conducted in either place. Anyone looking to work with an Indian service provider would do well to read this article. In my last post, I talked about the importance of social networks (the physical kind) in conducting business. I pointed out one reason for this: as a way to bypass non-functioning institutions in the redress of problems. The more general reason is brought out in this article: the difference between group-centered and individual -centered cultures.
Articles of this sort tend to go in one of two extreme directions: either dismiss any differences at all as an outdated concept for knowledge workers in the information age, or emphasize the differences to such an extent as to "exoticize" the other. This article has struck the right balance in accepting the global nature of work, while acknowledging the tribal nature of human relationships.
This article obviously begs the question: what cultural advice could you give Indian vendors working with US companies? More to come on this topic.
Friday, March 2, 2007
SMS is the Platform
- SMS is the Platform. We already know about the importance of mobile devices to technology adoption in India, but my friend made an even more pointed observation: your product or service has to be accessible via SMS to have any chance of gaining a large user base. Even when people buy data-enabled smartphones, they often have no interest in mastering a new interface when SMS is familiar and easy-to-use. For example, jewelers are paying for SMS-based alerts for price changes in precious metals. These same people are not familiar with the internet and are unlikely to be early adopters of an internet-based marketplace for precious metals.
- Lack of Trust Hinders Adoption. The medium for social networking is the clearest indication of the generation gap. In India, for people in their 30's or older, social networks are largely physical. Business is done in this way and social relations are conducted in this way. It's a perfectly rational response to the lack of effective remediation and redress. If you got cheated out of some money, how would you get it back? The police are often inept and/or corrupt and the court system is notoriously slow moving. The only rational thing to do is to minimize your risk by dealing only with people in your social network. Today's teenagers are comfortable moving their social networks online, but this generally tends to reflect their physical networks. The same issue of trust, just in a different medium.
- Internet Connectivity is Cumbersome. Beyond a small number of tech-savvy users in large cities, the internet has largely not touched people's lives in a meaningful manner. Even when people sign up for email accounts, they don't check them on a regular basis (and certainly not at the frequency that has become the norm in the US). Setting up and managing a broadband connection can still be cumbersome. Customer service at providers like BSNL and VSNL are universally acknowledged to be terrible. Even providers such as Airtel are getting poor reviews in this department. This has resulted in a cottage industry of "computer service" technicians who often do nothing more than apply the latest Windows patch. Still, they are needed to provide peace of mind to the non tech-savvy. Pricing plans are still archaic in terms of pricing by bandwidth usage (as if people actually know their expected bandwidth usage!) This entire process has to become a lot more streamlined before we can expect wider adoption.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
Hardwired for the Web
Monday, January 29, 2007
The war for talent
At the macro level, the only solution is to increase the supply of qualified workers. Everyone understands this, and the education sector is booming as a result of this. At the micro level, companies (at least large ones) will increasingly shoulder the burden themselves. Some already do: Infosys runs what is probably the world's largest and most sophisticated training operation. Other companies are looking to follow suit. However, attrition rates are still high at Infosys (many hires leave after their training period).
I've been involved in the dynamic first-hand. Based on what I've seen, here are three recommendations I would make to alleviate the problem, at least at the micro level.
- Select for fit. This is as much a mis-allocation problem as a supply and demand problem. What I mean is that prospective employees often don't look at "soft" but important factors such as the work environment, the dynamics of their future team etc, when making their decision. The decision is usually based on compensation and, in some engineering positions, on the programming tools used and the complexity of the problem to be solved. This is a myopic view, and can often result in dissatisfied employees that are a poor fit in the new organization. Company recruiters do not focus on the "fit" either, and hire based on skills and experience, with the same result.
- Use better recruiting metrics. Today recruiters are often able to measure "yield" - the number of hires made from a specific source, so that they can focus their efforts on the highest yielding sources. However, in an environment where attrition rates are so high, yield is not enough. Recruiters should track the progress of personnel, and add a "longevity" metric to their "yield" metrics. Better yet, try and isolate those characteristics that describe the employees that end up staying longer. Select for those characteristics, and focus on those sources that provide the most people with them. Reinforce success.
- Build recruiting feedback loop. In addition to isolating those characteristics that tend to be associated with success at the company, find those that don't. When people leave the company, follow a standardized exit interview process and collect the data in a form that can be analyzed (the advantage of high attrition: you'll have a lot of data!). Isolate patterns to try and determine retrospectively what could have been done differently. If there is a consistent "fit" problem, start screening for those characteristics during the interview process. If there is a consistent "dissatisfaction" problem, try and remedy it by either adjusting expectations during the recruiting process, or by changing the company's practices.
Saturday, January 27, 2007
India Startup Tracker: The Wisdom of Crowds
- Silicon Valley 2.0: List of Indian start-ups, and funding details, if applicable.
- Wall Street 2.0: List of M&A activity and IPO's in the start-up world.
Some ground rules, and a mini FAQ below.
Ground rules
- Restrict the list to start-ups: This is meant as a listing of start-up companies, not larger companies getting funded by late-stage private equity. What's the exact definition of a start-up? There isn't one - use your judgment.
- When listing funding details, please provide a source. And it goes without saying that the spreadsheet should only contain publicly available information.
FAQ
Q: How do I edit the spreadsheet?
A: Send me an email at: rahul [dot] roychowdhury [at] gmail [dot] com and I will give you permission to edit the spreadsheet.
Q: Why use Google Spreadsheets rather than a wiki?
A: Good question, and its something I thought about. Wikis generally provide better collaboration than Google Spreadsheets currently does. On the other hand, having the information in tabular form will allow some interesting trend analysis and summary displays once the data set gets large enough. And even if Google Spreadsheets doesn't currently provide charting and analysis tools (#1 on my Google wish list!) you can always download the data to Excel and do the analysis. In general, I think this capability outweighs other considerations.
Q: The format looks pretty awful. Can I change it?
A: By all means.